Nothing about the Biden and Trump matchup is unsaid. Nonetheless, I feel compelled to blog about it because of its topicality.
While I follow presidential elections, I do not vote, so this post is from a hypothetical voter.
The Choice
Many Americans feel we deserve better than being forced to choose between Biden and Trump. Unfortunately, this less-than-ideal scenario is a recurring theme, resulting from a primary system that favors candidates catering to the party’s base rather than a broader audience.
The selection of less capable VP running mates, such as Kamla Harris, only compounds the choice frustration. These VPs, having gained recognition, often transition into presidential candidates, as seen with Bush Sr. and Biden.
While the Biden-Trump choice is unappealing, it’s unique because it allows Americans to compare candidates who have each served one presidential term.
The Incumbent
Trump succumbed to anti-incumbency in 2020; Biden must grapple with it now.
Do I have anti-incumbency wrath toward Biden? Yes, I do.
First and foremost, I am enraged by Biden’s massive student loan waiver program, which is not a solution to any problem but political pandering and rewarding irresponsible and risky behaviors. I see no justification for a student loan waiver in the world’s most affluent country, where post-college earning opportunities are plentiful.
Second, my anger extends to Biden’s inadequate handling of America’s role in Gaza, where the death and misery rained on Palestinians is shameful. Biden has just not done enough to restrain Israel’s disproportionate and endless response to the Hamas attack.
Third, I disapprove of Biden’s Russia policy before and during the Ukraine invasion (read my Russia post here). He may have laid the foundation for another Cold War.
Many others are unhappy with Biden regarding illegal immigration, price inflation, and high money borrowing costs. The latter two are nonissues for me because they are not under his direct control.
There are certainly positive aspects to Biden’s presidency, but my anti-incumbency-driven wrath is non-compensatory, as is often of pigheaded voters disillusioned with incumbents. Based on the three strikes mentioned above, Biden is out.
The Challenger
That leaves me with the socially undesirable task of talking positively about Trump.
Over the years, I have never had a positive impression of Trump because of his flashy personality and lifestyle. However, when he entered election mode, he grabbed my attention as someone potentially having a curative effect on one of America’s worst chronic sicknesses—political correctness. The pervasive and extreme level of political correctness in American society is stifling, resembling a form of censorship that silences diverse viewpoints and impedes genuine dialogue.
In 2016, Trump successfully campaigned with complete disregard for political correctness. However, his blunt rhetoric gave plenty to his opponents to accuse him of bigotry, racism, and misogyny and paint him as an unacceptable outlier. While some of these criticisms were valid, others may have been exaggerated, given they emanated from a frame of reference deeply ingrained in political correctness.
Given the pervasiveness of political correctness, it could be that many of Trump’s peers share some of his views but appear different simply because they adhere to political correctness. In that sense, Trump is not as much the outlier as he is perceived, and his presidential record reveals that.
Setting aside the negative impact of the Covid pandemic, President Trump was effective in several areas. His reducing corporate and individual tax rates, simplifying the tax code, and implementing deregulation ignited the economy and the stock market, a significant achievement of his presidency.
His efforts in brokering agreements of Israel with UAE and Bahrain, renegotiating NAFTA, imposing tariffs on China, and restricting China’s technological access furthered American interests. President Biden’s continuation of Trump’s China policies underscores their perceived value and effectiveness.
Although Trump has his strengths, including the willingness to challenge the status quo, he is petulant and prone to using provocative language and stretching the truth. These are awful qualities, but they primarily manifest in his tweets, press conference responses, and off-the-cuff interactions, but not in his policy decisions. With some exceptions, such as the troubling US Capitol Building incident, they mostly have a nuisance value rather than a policy impact.
In 2016, apprehension about the potential outcomes of a Trump presidency was understandable. However, having experienced a Trump presidency, we can have informed expectations in 2024. However, most people in my social circles entertain doomsday scenarios of a second Trump presidency, much like they did in 2016. That is surprising, considering they lived through one Trump term and did very well for themselves, and I must add, so did I. Moreover, the robust system of checks and balances in American governance mitigates concerns about extreme outcomes.
The Challenge
Based on the preceding, Trump’s challenge is to overcome a negative halo effect in that his capabilities and presidential achievements are underappreciated because of the overall negativity surrounding him.
Biden, on the other hand, must combat anti-incumbency and ease concerns about his cognitive health. Following the first debate fiasco, he might withdraw, in which case some of this post is moot.
The neutral voters in a handful of swing states, who might hold the key to the election, face quite a dilemma. Good luck to them for making their decision!
As for me, I am looking forward to an intriguing election season ahead, and I hope you are, too.
May the more deserving man win!
Notes
I follow national elections in India, my motherland, and America, my adopted country. If I could vote in India, I would support the candidate or party that I believed would be the best for the country, even if that did not align perfectly with my interests at the individual level.
India’s interest also drives my American presidential election preference in that my foremost and cutoff consideration is which candidate would be better for India. If one candidate is better, I will root for that candidate, regardless of other considerations. For instance, I believed Trump would be much better for India than Hillary Clinton due to his stance on Islamic terrorism and China and his being less likely to lecture and pester India regarding human rights, climate change, and the like. And unlike Clinton, he did not have close political advisors who were India baiters. Accordingly, I didn’t sympathize with Clinton despite the apprehensions and uncertainty surrounding Trump at the time.
For the 2024 election, I see a limited distinction between Biden and Trump regarding India. Given the current geopolitical dynamic, Biden is less likely to appease the far-left concerning India. While Trump leans more pro-India, his unpredictability offsets this slight advantage.
10 Comments
Nice post. Thanks for sharing a thoughtful write-up.
Do you think the recent assassination attempt at Trump’s rally in PA materially impacts his chances of winning? Some people have suggested some voters may be more likely to vote for him out of sympathy. Those who staunchly hate him will likely continue to hate him, regardless of what happens, but for prospective voters who have yet to decide who to back, do you think this event could sway them?
Biden has also insisted he will not drop out so it seems this post shall still remain relevant. While many Democrats have asked him to step down, I find it hard to believe that a different candidate (Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, etc.) would fare better than he would at this point in the race. I’m a bit surprised by the strategy by the party, as it suggests vulnerability. Definitely an “interesting” presidential race to say the least.
Thanks, Neil, for your comment.
It’s natural that the assassination attempt will bring some sympathy vote for Trump. For instance, Elon Musk categorically endorsed Trump after the incident.
There have been some twists and turns in this election and there might be some more.
Excellent blog that covers entire political and economic scenario. This is an eye opener and a treat to read your analysis.
Thanks, Sanjay.
Surinder, a captivating read for me. Your comparison between Biden and Trump – in detail within the US perspective and in a slighter but important Indian reference is very logical and convincing. Very professional writing. Thanks for choosing me as one of your readers. Do keep writing and sharing.
Thanks, Sanjay
Wonderful. Appreciate your thought process.
Your observations are correct on both presidents. I will prefer Trumph. He will bring peace in the world. His outburst are not his policies but small irritants.
Thanks. He has a knee-jerk reaction, but then later he comes around.
Thanks for sharing a balanced view, pretty rare now a days in the hyper polarized political world. I am glad you addressed the threat to democracy narrative in your statement on robustness of American democracy one. Did you deliberately leave out a view on the recently concluded debate performance that raised a hue and cry even within the Democrats?
Thanks, Sudev.
I did note he might withdraw because his withdrawal would make this post somewhat moot.