India’s Rahul Gandhi Problem

Rahul Gandhi hails from an unparalleled political dynasty that originated with his great-great-grandfather. In this post, I will summarize and share my opinions about the emergence of this dynasty.

Motilal Nehru (Rahul’s great-great-grandfather)

Motilal Nehru was a two-time president of the Indian National Congress (INC) during British India. Immediately following his presidency, his son Jawaharlal became INC president. Although Jawaharlal’s familial connections helped him, he also had considerable personal merit.

Jawaharlal Nehru (Rahul’s great-grandfather)

Later, Jawaharlal Nehru served for 17 years as India’s first prime minister (PM). While commendable in some respects, Nehru’s foundational policy choices left India grappling with economic and social burdens that haunt it even today (see here).

Indira Gandhi (Rahul’s grandmother)

Two years after Nehru’s death, the INC chose Nehru’s daughter, Indira Gandhi, as PM, not for her experience or competence but for her lineage.

Like her father, Indira Gandhi, PM for 16 years, socialized and dented the Indian economy. She let her younger son wield extraordinary power and, upon his death, got her elder son, Rajiv, to enter politics.

Rajiv Gandhi (Rahul’s father)

Indira Gandhi’s assassination in 1984 was shocking. It was even more incredible that INC replaced her with Rajiv Gandhi, his primary qualification being he was the son! At the time, it struck me, a recent idealistic college graduate, that nepotism is the worst form of corruption, and its prevalence in the apex government was India’s bane.

Rajiv Gandhi was PM until 1989. At that juncture, 42 years into independence, except for one three-year period, political power had been concentrated with the INC.

The negative consequences of this power concentration were likely exacerbated by dynastic entitlement being the primary leadership criterion within the INC. In this context, how could India have truly realized the benefits of democracy?

Not surprisingly, India was a classic case of what-could-have-been, like a student with the potential for getting a B+ scraping through with a C.

Sonia Gandhi (Rahul’s mother)

After Rajiv’s assassination, his widow, Sonia, initially stayed away from politics, but the INC persuaded her to lead.

That the INC turned to Sonia, of all people, exemplifies the leadership rot within the party. Sonia, of Italian origin with no relevant background, was far removed from mainstream India. But she was Mrs. Rajiv Gandhi!

When the INC came to power, Sonia, facing impediments to becoming PM, appointed Manmohan Singh, a technocrat loyal figurehead while she wielded political power and, by many accounts, was the de facto PM.  The arrangement lasted ten years and ensured no leader emerged to challenge the in-the-wings Rahul to lead the INC, which he did in 2013.

Rahul Gandhi (heir apparent?)

Rahul lacks an inspiring vision, political acumen, and an understanding of grassroots realities and has struggled to connect with the electorate.

Under Rahul’s leadership, the INC was routed in the 2014 and 2019 general elections and will likely lose the 2024 election. Rahul even lost his family’s bastion constituency and sought electoral refuge in a religious minority-heavy constituency.

The INC’s campaigns to reshape Rahul’s image have yet to bear fruit. Despite Rahul’s nonperformance, the INC continues to foist him only because he is the family scion.

While nepotism may sometimes offer short-term benefits, it stifles competition for human skills and insidiously fosters an environment of incompetence. 

Unfortunately, the fact that Rahul is a product of extreme nepotism is not at all troubling, let alone disgusting, to a sizable population. Worse, for long, many Indians strongly believed he was entitled and destined to become PM.

Bhartiya Janata Party (the spoiler)

With the BJP’s rise in 2014, the Indian political pendulum has swung toward the right. It was bound to happen as a counter-reaction to the decades of leftist ideology that held sway.

The BJP’s rise has partly neutralized the leftist excesses of the past, but it might take ten more years for the process to run through.

However, beyond an inflection point, the unchallenged concentration of power with the BJP, should it occur, could be counterproductive. That point is probably a decade away—sufficient time for a strong countervailing challenger to emerge.

That challenger is the INC, the only other national party, but not in its existing avatar. While the family-run INC may win and Rahul could become PM, it would be the same old if that happens.

The Future

A reborn INC unshackled from familial legacies and grounded in meritocracy is needed. This transition, challenging in the short term, will ultimately give birth to an efficient entity.

The above political renewal will foster a robust two-party system: two somewhat evenly matched parties with an underlying loyal core support base and a floating population that votes on the merits of performance and platforms. India is a Rahul Gandhi & Family away from this desirable state.