Who will Triumph in India’s 2024 General Election?

Indian elections are notoriously difficult to predict. Just ask the detractors of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who were left stunned and red-faced by the 2019 election results.

They have since recovered and are forecasting the BJP’s defeat with renewed enthusiasm. Good for them!

As for me, I’m hoping Narendra Modi secures a third term.

In this somewhat one-sided post, I will use three big-picture factors—the State of the Economy, the Strength of the Incumbent, and the State of the Opposition—to speculate on why the BJP could return to power.

State of the Economy

India’s recovery from the pandemic-induced economic nosedive has been reassuring. Although GDP growth is still below potential, the economy is humming along reasonably well, indicative of growth in business, employment, and entrepreneurial opportunities (see notes).

However, inflation, which can potentially unseat any incumbent, looms on the horizon.

From 2009 to 2013, annual inflation averaged 10.25 percent. It dropped to 4.75 percent for 2014-2018, benefitting the BJP in 2019.

However, for the recent 2020-2022 three-year period, inflation has averaged a somewhat concerning 6.15 percent. This level could exact some electoral toll on the BJP, especially among low-income consumers, who suffer the most from inflation, particularly in food prices.

But, the opposition has not gained much traction with the inflation issue, suggesting inflation might be less damaging to the BJP than I think. Perhaps many voters perceive the BJP as the best bet to address economic challenges. Also, inflation had cooled down somewhat in 2023.

Inflation could have been far worse. The government likely averted detrimental double-digit inflation in the run-up to the election by resisting widespread calls for imprudent fiscal stimulus during the pandemic. 

Considering many people vote their pocketbooks, the current state of the three interconnected macroeconomic pillars—GDP, employment, and inflation—bodes well for the incumbent despite some bumps.

Strength of the Incumbent

BJP’s biggest asset is Modi, who has a vice-like grip on the psyche of the Indian middle class and is gaining traction among the lower-income classes. He uses this hold and a deep understanding of the country’s fabric to set and control the narrative to his party’s advantage.

Going into the election, the BJP’s array of economic and socio-cultural initiatives could be its trump card, just like in 2019.

While the impact of its first-term welfare programs may have waned as people adapted to the status quo and developed new expectations, the government has since implemented new programs.

These programs, such as piped water to rural households, not only sway direct beneficiaries but also sway the voting inclinations of non-beneficiaries who have long yearned for a government that expeditiously improves the lives of the underprivileged.

While welfare programs are not highly visible, the government’s emphases in its second term, particularly developing physical and digital infrastructure, stand out. Thoughtful voters likely realize that the infrastructure thrust will be a turning point in India’s economic growth.

The government’s mission mode has yielded outcomes that most would have considered very unlikely. For instance, in 2019, few would have imagined the government would be able to usher in a new dawn in Kashmir or reduce corporate tax rates, in some cases, to as low as 20 percent.

State of the Opposition

In stark contrast to the BJP, the opposition alliance is a motley collection of family-centric outfits with no core ideology or coherent message and with weaker organizational and financial resources.

The opposition has struggled to fault the government for its track record. Consequently, they resort to the familiar refrain of “democracy and secularism in jeopardy” and target Modi’s personality rather than his outcomes track record.

They raise valid concerns about Modi’s centralized decision-making and unilateral actions, portraying him as an arrogant, polarizing leader who fosters a personality cult. However, their approach reinforces the public’s perception that Modi is determined to do the job, whereas the opposition looks for reasons not to.

The absence of a dominant party to anchor the opposition alliance and a well-defined leader further weakens their position.

While the opposition’s prime ministerial face is unknown, the default candidate, Rahul Gandhi, lacks a clear identity, with support primarily coming from religious minorities.

I believe the rationale and composition of the broad opposition alliance might deter rather than attract some voters contemplating change. More so given that the incumbent is popular and eager to contest on its record.

What gives me pause is many rational and intelligent people, for example, several friends in my social media circles, see the opposition alliance as the superior alternative. Maybe there is merit to their assessment that I don’t or can’t appreciate.

We shall see whether the combined vote share of a patchwork alliance can help dislodge a popular incumbent and whether caste can trump performance.

So, Who Will Win?

While my high-level overview paints an optimistic scenario for the BJP, a reliable election prediction requires an analysis of state-wise electoral prospects.

I know the BJP cannot overcome religion-based demographics in Kerala and ideological hurdles in Tamil Nadu, and it will sweep Gujarat and so on. However, the outcome in half a dozen states, such as Bihar and Maharashtra, is uncertain.

An in-depth analysis of these key states is not up my alley, so I do not have an informed answer to the question posed in the title. Nonetheless, I would like to think that despite recent headwinds, the election is still the BJP’s to lose.

As is often the case, only time will tell.

NOTES

I started this blog in November 2021. My first post was about Modi (read here), and so was the first-anniversary post (read here). In a nod to tradition, this second-anniversary post is also about Modi, the title notwithstanding.

I have assumed the electorate will mostly vote presidential, not parliamentary style, there won’t be substantial spillover from state politics to national politics, and the opposition alliance will function smoothly. And the public, in hindsight, sees the Covid travails as arising from an act of God.

While the average voter is not into GDP and GDP growth, healthy GDP growth indicates robust economic activity, directly and indirectly affecting the lives of everyday citizens. Although jobless growth is possible, it is not consistent with the characteristics of the Indian economy.

Establishing a comprehensive, far-reaching, and efficient social welfare system that uplifts and empowers the impoverished without them having to wait for the trickle-down effect of India’s economic progress is the BJP’s crowning achievement. For this achievement alone, it deserves one more term. During its second term, the government has ably shepherded India through the darkness of a pandemic, economic challenges of an unusual stripe, and geopolitical turmoil.

Although this post is one-sided, I am not oblivious to the shortcomings of the BJP government. Given India’s diverse and complex economic and social problems, it is easy to rip apart even the best-performing government. The BJP government is no exception.

Inflation Data: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=IN